You’ve stepped into the exciting world of weekly NFL office pools. Congratulations! This guide is here to help you navigate the different types of football pools, specifically focusing on NFL Confidence Pools, also known as Pro Football Pick’Em Leagues.
Understanding NFL Confidence Pool Picks
Confidence Pool Picks, one of the popular variations of football pools, requires two tasks each week. Firstly, from the scheduled NFL games, you predict the winner of each match. Secondly, you assign a rank (1 to 16) to each game, reflecting your confidence in your chosen winner. If your prediction hits the mark, you earn the confidence points you allocated.
For instance, consider a match between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. You’ve backed the Packers with a high confidence rank of 15. If the Packers triumph, you bag 15 points. However, if the Bears come out on top (or the match ends in a draw), you score zero. You repeat this process for all the games each week. At the end of the week, your total points are the sum of your earned confidence points. Leagues often reward players with the highest weekly and seasonal point totals.
Crafting a Winning Confidence Pool Strategy
Deciding which team to back and how many confidence points to assign to each game can be challenging. A common approach is to choose the team with the highest win probability and assign them the highest point value (16). The team with the next highest win probability gets the second highest point value, and so on. This strategy is a safe bet to get you started and might even clinch a weekly win.
The Base Picks – Your Starting Point
Consider these picks as your “vanilla ice cream” of the football pool. Just like trying vanilla at a new ice cream parlor to judge its quality, your base picks are your fundamental, safe choices. Failing to get these right can spell trouble for your chances.
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The Money Picks – Spice up Your Game
Just like a plain vanilla ice cream can be enhanced with exciting toppings and flavors, you can enhance your game by taking calculated risks. We call these choices “money picks”. These picks can land you in the top three points for the week or season, which is usually enough to win some money.
Money picks are underrated teams with a higher win probability than most people realize. Each week, we identify a few solid money picks, often with a win probability ranging from 20% to 40%. The lower the win probability, the higher the risk. The amount of risk you should take depends on the size of your league and your aim (weekly or seasonal win).
How to Assign Confidence Points to Money Picks
To maximize your winnings, assign a high confidence point to your money pick. For example, choosing the New York Jets for 16 points is risky. However, in the one in four chance that you win, you’ll surge ahead of most other players. If you’re feeling adventurous, you can even choose a second money pick and assign a high confidence point value to it as well.
Once you’ve decided on your money picks, arrange the rest of your base picks around them. For higher risk, slot the green picks higher. For medium risk, choose the yellow picks, and for lower risk, opt for the blue picks. Every week, we provide four recommendations based on how much risk you’re willing to take.
Remember, these picks are merely guidelines. Feel free to modify them based on your own research and instincts.
Understanding Our Picks: The Ice Cream Analogy
We utilize betting data to calculate win probabilities for the base picks. Much like trying a new ice cream parlor’s vanilla flavor to gauge its quality, your base picks are your fundamental, safe choices. It’s vital to get these picks right to stay in the game.
However, just like a good vanilla ice cream won’t win any contests, base picks alone won’t win you the league. This is where you need to spice things up with some “toppings” or what we call “money picks”. These are the teams that are often underrated but have a better chance of winning than most people realize.
We represent the percentage of the general public that picked a team to win as the “percent picked” number. For instance, if 99% of people picked New England to win, it’s likely because they have a high win probability of 92%.
For the money picks, we look for teams that have the highest win probability at the lowest percent picked number. For example, the New York Jets might have a win probability of 26% and a percent picked under 10%. While a 26% win probability might seem low, it’s not zero and will occur about once every four times. If it happens, you’ll beat the 81% of people who didn’t pick them.
Every week, there are usually a few good money picks with win probabilities in the 20% to 40% range. The lower the win probability, the higher the risk. The risk level you should choose depends on your league size and whether you’re aiming for a weekly win or a seasonal win.
Our money picks guide will help you decide how much risk to take and which “toppings” to choose. Think of the high risk/high reward money picks as your “chocolate covered pretzels and bacon” – risky but potentially very rewarding. On the other hand, less risky picks with lower rewards are like your “ketchup and mustard” – risky but not as rewarding.
We categorize our picks into green, yellow, and blue. Green teams are high risk/high reward money picks, while yellow ones are less risky but also offer less reward. Our blue picks are the safest options with some reward.
Remember, these are just recommendations. Feel free to personalize your strategy based on your risk tolerance and the dynamics of your league. Good luck!